Yan vs Dvalishvili 3: Trilogy Preview, Keys to Victory and Prediction

Some rivalries are settled in one night. Yan vs Dvalishvili 3 will settle theirs on October 24 at UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi, where UFC bantamweight champion Petr Yan defends his belt against Merab Dvalishvili in the co-main event. One win apiece, one title at stake, and a lot of pride on the line.

The Story So Far

Dvalishvili took the first fight in 2023 by unanimous decision. He then climbed to the top of the bantamweight division, won the title from Sean O’Malley in 2024 and defended it four times in 2025, riding a 14-fight winning streak and seven unbeaten years. Then came UFC 323 in December 2025.

Yan, a clear underdog that night, produced one of 2025’s biggest upsets. He dominated the second fight on the scorecards, ripped to the body repeatedly, and reclaimed the bantamweight title he first won years earlier. Reports from the fight noted Dvalishvili wincing as the body shots landed. Yan now enters the trilogy on a four-fight winning streak, chasing a fifth.

Why Dvalishvili Says It Will Be Different

The Georgian has been honest about what went wrong. He took the Yan rematch only two months after beating Corey Sandhagen, and he has since admitted that was a mistake against a fighter this dangerous. This time he has had a full camp, and he plans to make the trilogy his only fight of 2026. He is also unapologetically confident, saying he believes he is the better fighter and needs to prove it.

That matters. Dvalishvili’s whole identity is relentless pace: constant pressure, takedowns and cardio no one else can match. At his best, he drowns opponents. Rested, he becomes a very different threat.

Keys to Victory

For Yan:

• Keep the fight at kicking and punching range
• Keep investing in the body, which paid off last time
• Win the scramble exchanges so Dvalishvili’s takedowns never become control time

For Dvalishvili:

• Start fast and set the pace from round one
• Mix level changes with the clinch to blunt Yan’s counters
• Stay patient, because his gas tank gets stronger as rounds pass

The Betting Angle

The market sees Yan as a modest favorite rather than a lock. Our partner site lays out the numbers in its Yan vs Dvalishvili 3 odds and prediction and explains why the price is not as wide as the last fight. For the full card, the UFC 333 best bets guide is a useful companion.

Prediction

It is tempting to assume Yan simply repeats what worked in December. But trilogies bring adjustments, and Dvalishvili now has a full camp and a clear lesson. Our pick: Yan by decision, but only narrowly. If Dvalishvili’s pace lands early and the fight becomes a wrestling grind, the belt could change hands again.

Before fight night, catch the latest from BJPENN.com and Bloody Elbow, and check MMA Mania for weigh-in coverage. Looking for the other title fight? Read our Volkanovski vs Evloev prediction.

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